Emerging-topic signals
Technology hub: 6 views
Early, evidence-based signals of quantum technology families that grow faster than the field, of new terms and topics, and of families that start to appear together. Each one is a signal, not a finding: a pattern in counts of records the portal already holds, with its window, counts and uncertainty, and the records behind it.
Reviewed signals
No signal has been reviewed yet. Signals are computed every month from the records the portal already holds and appear here once an editor has reviewed them; unreviewed signals are never shown publicly.
Method and limits
Method version 1.0. Three kinds of signal are computed for each stream of records the portal already holds; no outside service is asked and no AI is used.
- Growth acceleration: the records of a family in the recent window against the prior window of the same length, ratio (a + 0.5) / (b + 0.5) with a 90 % interval from the log ratio. The same ratio for every record of the stream is the field ratio: a family that grows only as fast as the field gives no signal.
- New term or topic: two consecutive title words (three letters or more, no function word) or the primary OpenAlex topic of a preprint, found in at least the minimum number of records of the recent window and in none of the earlier windows read. The EU share is the share of those records with an institution in a Member State.
- Convergence: records placed in two families at once, recent against prior, compared with the field ratio as for growth.
- Levels: stronger when the lower bound of the interval is above the field ratio and the ratio is at least 1.15 times the field; weak when the ratio is at least 2 times the field with the minimum recent count, whatever the interval. New terms are always weak.
| Records read | Recent window | Prior window | Records recent / prior | Minimum for growth | Minimum for a new term | Minimum for convergence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research and innovation projects on the portal, by start year | 2024–2025 | 2022–2023 | 1292 / 1328 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| arXiv quant-ph preprints with a European institution (preprint radar), by quarter | 2026-Q2–2026-Q3 | 2025-Q4–2026-Q1 | 0 / 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Publications per pillar (OpenAlex counts of the published JRC-style queries), by year | 2024–2025 | 2022–2023 | 35332 / 20698 | 30 | - | - |
Where the records come from
- Projects: published project pages (CORDIS and national funders) by start year, in the families an editor or a keyword rule confirmed in the shared taxonomy; nothing an editor rejected. Terms come from the titles. How the portal classifies technologies
- Preprints: the preprint radar’s arXiv quant-ph records with an OpenAlex match, kept about 400 days and only when an institution is European or an EU award is named; placed by the taxonomy’s keyword rules on their titles. Preprint radar
- Publications: yearly OpenAlex counts (CC0) of the published JRC-style queries per pillar, from the snapshot shipped with the portal (read 2026-10-25). Each query below reproduces its count, up to later OpenAlex updates.
- computing:
(("quantum computing" OR "quantum computer" OR "quantum computation" OR ("qubit" AND quantum) OR "quantum processor" OR "quantum algorithm" OR "quantum error correction" OR ("fault-tolerant" AND quantum) OR "quantum advantage" OR ("nisq" AND quantum)) NOT ("quantum group"))OpenAlex request (yearly counts, 2015 to 2025) - communication:
(("quantum communication" OR "quantum key distribution" OR ("qkd" AND quantum) OR "quantum network" OR "quantum internet" OR "quantum repeater" OR ("entanglement distribution" AND quantum)) NOT ("post-quantum"))OpenAlex request (yearly counts, 2015 to 2025) - sensing:
("quantum sensing" OR "quantum sensor" OR "quantum metrology" OR ("atomic clock" AND quantum) OR ("optical clock" AND quantum) OR ("magnetometer" AND quantum) OR ("magnetometry" AND quantum) OR ("gravimeter" AND quantum) OR ("gravimetry" AND quantum) OR ("atom interferometer" AND quantum) OR ("atom interferometry" AND quantum) OR "quantum imaging")OpenAlex request (yearly counts, 2015 to 2025) - simulation:
(("quantum simulation" OR "quantum simulator" OR "analogue quantum" OR "analog quantum" OR "quantum emulation" OR "quantum emulator") NOT ("optical lattice clock"))OpenAlex request (yearly counts, 2015 to 2025) - pqc:
("post-quantum" OR ("pqc" AND quantum) OR "quantum-safe" OR "quantum-resistant" OR ("crypto-agility" AND quantum) OR ("cryptographic migration" AND quantum))OpenAlex request (yearly counts, 2015 to 2025) - total:
((("quantum computing" OR "quantum computer" OR "quantum computation" OR ("qubit" AND quantum) OR "quantum processor" OR "quantum algorithm" OR "quantum error correction" OR ("fault-tolerant" AND quantum) OR "quantum advantage" OR ("nisq" AND quantum)) NOT ("quantum group")) OR (("quantum communication" OR "quantum key distribution" OR ("qkd" AND quantum) OR "quantum network" OR "quantum internet" OR "quantum repeater" OR ("entanglement distribution" AND quantum)) NOT ("post-quantum")) OR ("quantum sensing" OR "quantum sensor" OR "quantum metrology" OR ("atomic clock" AND quantum) OR ("optical clock" AND quantum) OR ("magnetometer" AND quantum) OR ("magnetometry" AND quantum) OR ("gravimeter" AND quantum) OR ("gravimetry" AND quantum) OR ("atom interferometer" AND quantum) OR ("atom interferometry" AND quantum) OR "quantum imaging") OR (("quantum simulation" OR "quantum simulator" OR "analogue quantum" OR "analog quantum" OR "quantum emulation" OR "quantum emulator") NOT ("optical lattice clock")))OpenAlex request (yearly counts, 2015 to 2025) - total_pqc:
((("quantum computing" OR "quantum computer" OR "quantum computation" OR ("qubit" AND quantum) OR "quantum processor" OR "quantum algorithm" OR "quantum error correction" OR ("fault-tolerant" AND quantum) OR "quantum advantage" OR ("nisq" AND quantum)) NOT ("quantum group")) OR (("quantum communication" OR "quantum key distribution" OR ("qkd" AND quantum) OR "quantum network" OR "quantum internet" OR "quantum repeater" OR ("entanglement distribution" AND quantum)) NOT ("post-quantum")) OR ("quantum sensing" OR "quantum sensor" OR "quantum metrology" OR ("atomic clock" AND quantum) OR ("optical clock" AND quantum) OR ("magnetometer" AND quantum) OR ("magnetometry" AND quantum) OR ("gravimeter" AND quantum) OR ("gravimetry" AND quantum) OR ("atom interferometer" AND quantum) OR ("atom interferometry" AND quantum) OR "quantum imaging") OR (("quantum simulation" OR "quantum simulator" OR "analogue quantum" OR "analog quantum" OR "quantum emulation" OR "quantum emulator") NOT ("optical lattice clock")) OR ("post-quantum" OR ("pqc" AND quantum) OR "quantum-safe" OR "quantum-resistant" OR ("crypto-agility" AND quantum) OR ("cryptographic migration" AND quantum)))OpenAlex request (yearly counts, 2015 to 2025)
Limits
- A signal is a pattern in counts, not a finding about science or technology. Small counts give wide intervals: read the interval, not only the ratio.
- Project counts follow funding calls and programme cycles; a family can grow because a call named it.
- The back-test uses today’s taxonomy and today’s classification, which were written knowing later events (look-ahead bias); its reference set was proposed by the implementer and awaits an editor’s confirmation.
- Preprints are kept about 400 days and only with a European institution, so their windows are quarters and their EU share is a share among European-affiliated preprints. The radar runs only when switched on.
- Publication counts are per pillar only, and the latest year is still being indexed by OpenAlex.
- Patents are not read yet: the stored patent families are classed by broad CPC groups only.
- No researcher is named: records are projects, preprints and counts; organisations appear only as counts.